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Predispositioning theory, in the field of decision theory and systems theory, is a theory focusing on the stages between a complete order and a complete disorder. Predispositioning theory was founded by Aron Katsenelinboigen (1927–2005), a Professor in Wharton School who dealt with indeterministic systems such as chess, business, economics, and other fields of knowledge and also made an essential step forward in elaboration of styles and methods of decision-making. ==Predispositioning theory== Predispositioning theory is focused on the intermediate stage between a complete order and a complete disorder. According to Katsenelinboigen, the system develops gradually, going through several stages, starting with incomplete and inconsistent linkages between its elements and ending with complete and consistent ones. “''Mess''. The zero phase can be called a mess because it contains no linkages between the system's elements. Such a definition of mess as ‘a disorderly, un-tidy, or dirty state of things’ we find in Webster's New World Dictionary. (…) ''Chaos''. Mess should not be confused with the next phase, chaos, as this term is understood today. Arguably, chaos is the first phase of indeterminism that displays sufficient order to talk of the general problem of system development. The chaos phase is characterized by some ordering of accumulated statistical data and the emergence of the basic rules of interactions of inputs and outputs (not counting boundary conditions). Even such a seemingly limited ordering makes it possible to fix systemic regularities of the sort shown by Feigenbaum numbers and strange attractors. (…) Different types of orderings in the chaos phase may be brought together under the notion of directing, for they point to a possible general direction of system development and even its extreme states. But even if a general path is known, enormous difficulties remain in linking algorithmically the present state with the final one and in operationalizing the algorithms. These oblectives are realized in the next two large phases that I call predispositioning and programming. (…) ''Programming''. When linkages between states are established through reactive procedures, either by table functions or analytically, it is often assumed that each state is represented only by essentials. For instance, the production function in economics ties together inputs and outputs in physical terms. When a system is represented as an equilibrium or an optimization model, the original and conjugated parameters are stated explicitly; in economics, they are products (resources) and prices, respectively.9 Deterministic economic models have been extensively formalized; they assume full knowledge of inputs, outputs, and existing technologies. (…) Predispositioning (…) exhibits less complete linkages between system's elements than programming but more complete than chaos.” 〔Katsenelinboigen, Aron. The Concept of Indeterminism and Its Applications: Economics, Social Systems, Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, and Aesthetics Praeger: Westport, Connecticut, 1997, p.p.19-20)〕 Methods like programming and randomness are well-known and developed while the methodology for the intermediate stages lying between complete chaos and complete order as well as their philosophical conceptualization have never been discussed explicitly and no methods of their measurements were elaborated. According to Katsenelinboigen, operative sub-methods of dealing with the system are programming, predispositioning, and randomness. They correspond to three stages of systems development. Programming is a formation of complete and consistent linkages between all the stages of the systems' development. Predispositioning is a formation of semi-efficient linkages between the stages of the system's development. In other words, predispositioning is a method responsible for creation of a predisposition. Randomness is a formation of inconsistent linkages between the stages of the system's development. In this context, for instance, Darwinism emphasizes the exclusive role of chance occurrences in the system's development since it gives top priority to randomness as a method. Conversely, creationism states that the system develops in a comprehensive fashion, i.e. that programming is the only method involved in the development of the system. As Aron Katsenelinboigen notices, both schools neglect the fact that the process of the system's development includes a variety of methods which govern different stages, depending on the systems’ goals and conditions. Unfortunately, predispositioning as a method as well as a predisposition as an intermediate stage have never been discussed by scholars, though there were some interesting intuitive attempts to deal with the formation of a predisposition. The game of chess, at this point, was one of the most productive fields in the study of predispositioning as a method. Owing to chess’ focus on the positional style, it elaborated a host of innovative strategies and tactics that Katsenelinboigen analyzed and systematized and made them a basis for his theory. To sum up, the main focus of predispositioning theory is on the intermediate stage of systems development, the stage that Katsenelinboigen proposed to call a "predisposition". This stage is distinguished by semi-complete and semi-consistent linkages between its elements. The most vital question when dealing with semi-complete and semi-consistent stages of the system is the question of its evaluation. To this end, Katsenelinboigen elaborated his structure of values, using the game of chess as a model. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Predispositioning theory」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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